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![]() ![]() ![]() He’d remain leading for the rest of 2008, except for two very brief stretches, and ultimately won the popular vote by 7. In December 2007, the race closed to a tie or a narrow McCain lead, but by February 2008, Obama was back on top. 2008: Barack Obama led most polls against John McCain throughout 2007, with a lead of about 5 points on average.Polling also fluctuates, so looking at even an average of polls in any one week or month is often unrepresentative, as the numbers could shift afterward.Īnd yet, looking at the polling averages on RealClearPolitics for recent presidential cycles for the year before the actual election year, they often aren’t so far off the mark. There’s truth to that - the campaigns will help better frame the choice for voters, less well-known candidates can become better known as the election gets closer (though that may be less of a factor this year since both likely nominees have run before), and events can change voters’ minds. The conventional wisdom is that polls this far ahead of the election aren’t worth very much, because much will change before Election Day. It is early, but polls right now aren’t totally worthless And Biden has low approval ratings - suggesting a significant number of people who voted for him aren’t thrilled with his presidency, and that his campaign has a good deal of work to do. The same candidates ran in 2020 and it was very close then. That meshes with some other things we know about the 2024 race. But if we ignore small short-term fluctuations, over the past year, polls have been telling a broadly consistent story of a very close race that Trump has a real shot of winning if, as expected, he wins the GOP nomination. Many things could happen: Trump could face criminal convictions, Biden’s age (or Trump’s age) could show more, the economy could take a turn for the better or worse. ![]() It is early, and the polls will likely move around more in the next 14 months before the general election. Others question whether particular polls are on the level or simply argue it’s too early to read much into them. Some Democrats have responded with anxiety about what the polls show or cautious hope that there’s still enough time for things to change. Polling in swing states has been more sparse this year, but most of the few that have been released have shown close contests too. The RealClearPolitics polling average now shows Biden leading by a mere 0.4 percentage point margin - basically a pure toss-up. Other recent polls have shown a tied race or a narrow lead for either candidate. Donald Trump may be facing 91 criminal counts across four separate indictments, but polls continue to show an extremely close 2024 contest between him and President Joe Biden.Ī CNN poll released Thursday showed Trump ahead by one point. ![]()
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